That's the wrong way to look at probability. You don't put probabilities on events that have already happened. You put probabilities on events that are about to happen given past events.
If you want to ask what the probability of someone having the fourth ace, given AAA flop...sure we can calculate that.
What are the chances of getting any one single hand in poker? Do those probabilities change by what card comes on the flop...turn...river?
The probabilities don't change based on what cards come out afterwards. Why?
__________________
"And that's how you play aces."
Yeah, you make kings run in to them.
|