The line on SWA's Backer Rail thread...
 

(Disclaimer: This is by no means a shot at Brian or anything like that. I just thought it would be fun. If he strongly objects to this, I'll kill it, but I thought it would inspire him more than anything else).

Go read for details about the stake and his updates. In a nutshell, he's got 10 backers and is going to be playing in a total of 40 tourneys. I believe he's played 9 of them now, without cashing, leaving 31 to go.

So, here's the prop bet: By the end of the entire series, how many cashes will Brian have? This is of course assuming he plays only MTTs, as planned. I'm setting the initial line at 3.5 (see the next post in this thread for the current line). I'm laying 5/4 odds (in my favor, since you get to choose which side of the line to take), and only accepting $5 and $10 bets. The line may very well move (based on the action I'm taking and of course based on his progress), and I can close the action whenever I want.

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BONUS (Added 8/24): This bonus will be available for the first 10 people to bet:

-If Brian wins (1st place) any qualifying tourney that has over 200 players entered in it, NO ONE LOSES! The winners will still win, but the losers will get their bets back.

-If Brian wins a total of $2000 or more from all 40 tourneys combined (making my 5% worth $100), EVERYONE WINS! Regardless of which side of the line you picked, you win your bet.

Now you can bet the under and still root for Brian to go really deep, especially once he's already ITM.
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So, if you want to play, ship exactly $5 or $10 to my TalkingPoker account on Stars and post in this thread if you want the over or the under, plus your Stars name if it's not the same as your name here. If you win the bet, I'll ship you back $9 (for $5 bets) or $18 (for $10 bets) after he finishes his 40 tourneys.

Fine print: Because of the nature of this prop, I reserve the right to refuse any bet and send you your money back - post in this thread when you ship the money, and I'll respond if it was accepted or not. The only reason I would even refuse a bet would be if he went on a tear and won 2 or 3 tourneys in a row and THEN people were betting before I had time to adjust the line. I'm certainly not going to screw anyone over - just covering my ass for times when he's playing and I'm not around to keep tabs on his progress. If you place a bet and THEN he plays a bunch before I get online, I'll still honor your bet, even if it's a lock for you.

That's it. It's only $5, so it's more for fun than anything else.... but let's see who the real gamblers are here.

BTW - If I were to set an over/under on the number of people who TAKE this bet, sadly, I think it would be less than the 3.5 on Brian's cashes. Boooo - you guys suck. Gambling is fun!

Current Line: No Line - Post if you want acion.

Booked Bets:
sotrmwa_jr - $10 - Over 3.5
jimmym - $10 - Over 3.5
The Storm - $10 - Under 4.5

So if i bet over the line and he cash's in 4 tourneys i win $4?

Can we bet more than $5?

Yes, that is correct (4 > 3.5).

I was going to say that the bets had to all be $5, but I'll make it a max bet of $10. So you can bet either exactly $5 or exactly $10 - no more.

I would love to bet on Brians winning, or lack of......


I dont see he how anyone, even a donkey, fish, brian can not cash in 3 out of 30 tourneys.


I'll bet $10, ill have Brian send you the money and ill pay him, I dont want anyone to know my stars ID. Feel free to make crazy accusations of why.

EDIT: to specify my donk comment, im betting on he cashs in more than 4

$10 on the Over please.

money sent

Whoops.... looks like Brian wasn't 0 for 9 so far, but rather 1 for 9. He's deep in a tourney right now - I thought he was out of everything, based on his "only the rebuy left" followed by "out of the rebuy" posts. My bad on that one.

I'll accept the above two bets for my stupid mistake, but I'm bumping the line up to 4.5 effective immediately.

Is it because you are really Brian.

dont panik that tourny is not part of his scheduled 40 games.

I'm only accepting this bet if the money is in my account by 6:15 PM (20 minutes from now). If not, it's void and you'll have to bet with the new line.

OK, I'm updating the line to NO LINE right now (meaning you can't bet). I'm off to softball and will put the line back in a few hours after I properly figure out how many tourneys he's played and cashed in so far.

If he's 0 for 9 like I originally though, we'll likely go back to 3.5.

this is correct per our agreement only $5 tourneys and above count and this one is a $2 tourney. I sent you money for stormwa.

slowpitch softball?

Yup. Co-ed.

We won our championship game tonight and then went out for a few of these: :cheers::cheers::cheers:

OK, I'm setting the new line to 4.5 - I was going to just bump it to 4, but this should be good for now. The betting window is once again open.

you should have at $10 transfer from me which is Stormwajr's

nm just saw it up top, come on Brian read 1st then post.

I'll take the under.

no big suprise. :p

Confirmed.

I know I'm going to end up getting screwed when he cashes in exactly 4 tourneys and I lose every bet (so far, anyway).

Looks like Brian is ITM right now, making him 1/10 so far. 30 tourneys left to go, and remember, all bets are for the total cashes out of the 40 qualifying tourneys. Even with this cash, the line is holding steady at 4.5 right now.

Looks like Brian is ITM again, so I'm bumping the line up to 5. That means he'll need to cash in 4 or less for the under to win and 6 or more to win the over. If he cashes for exactly 5, you'd get your money back.

you guys pretty serious about it down there or is it just for fun. During the summer I usually play 4 nights a week plus tournaments on the weekends so its pretty big up here.

I love coed softball, that is so much fun. we won our league a few weeks ago and now are playing fall ball. down there you dont have "fall ball" but basically its the last leagues of the year since its going to get cold soon.

(I'll respond in a new thread, since we are WAY OT here).

Yet another misunderstanding since he keeps posting tourneys that have nothing to do with this in the backer thread... He's currently cashed in 1 out of 11, so the line is back to 4.5 for the series.

sorry :o

Raise the line to 25 and let me bet under.