Tom Dwan - so sick...
 

BTW - I would have about murdered Phil Laak for saying anything at the table if I was Dwan.

the kid is good.


Laak is desperate for TV exposure to ensure continued backing in these games.

ah god
is that a terrible play usually or does he really have that sick of a read and a ridiculously good play?

a;dsjfal;jdf;aljf/drunk

i think if the blank wasn't the 2 he gives up and possibly has been seen overbetting a made draw before... but yea I kind of think once I check the river with AQ there it's to setup a bluff so....

Maybe if he makes a normal looking bet, but I'm pretty sure you call with TPTK there never.

Im ignoring the stakes here obviously (if i was in this game i would be comfortable stacking off, if i wasn't i wouldn't play) but regardless of the 3x pot bet or 3/4 pot bet, we're in the same situation here no? You figure Dwan could have 64... [ normally you'd fold the turn with 64 but you could certainly (profitably) call if your plan was to also bluff a club river (and you figure your success rate to be decent)], but also missed clubs a ton and PROBABLY doesn't have too many hands outside of that range that make this bet.

Then it comes down to recent action, has he overbet a made draw like this before? has he overbet in general like this on the river before? with what kind of hands? in what situations? with what types of river cards? has he been called down? have i made laydowns to big river bets? big laydowns? are there any mind games going on between us set up from recent events? could this be some kind of level with a 2 pair hand thinking i'll call down with one pair bc its blufflike?

If the plan was to check to let clubs bluff and call, now that the bet is much larger than anticipated it shouldn't change things -- i mean yea you'll have to think about it longer, but if anything this bet would probably lessen his range of hands than had he bet the river normally (to pretty much exclusively two clubs or 64). For the most part if villains range is nuts/bluff, I call more often than not

But I had the luxury of seeing Dwan's cards so who knows

You are the guy who is always posting hands where you fold the second nuts and sets on relatively dry boards, etc. If you think I believe for a second you would call here with TPTK, I am calling BS, sir.

Divide the stakes by 10 or 100 if that makes the numbers make more sense to you. Now cover up Dwan's hole cards and pretend someone posted it on here holding the AQ. Are you telling me that your advice to them would be to go ahead and stack off with it?

Somehow I doubt it.

I thought PAD was a SnG format... did they change to a cash game for one week?

I'd go Hellmuth style and put all my chips in the middle like a spaz instantly.

I do appreciate everyone nut hugging durrr though.

Yea I made posts folding big hands, but in almost all of them, there was little or more likely no reasonable bluffing hands -- in this case there's an obvious one. It was also usually against straightforward opponents, something Dwan is anything but.

The original plan with AQ was certain to check call a river bet. In fact I'll even one up that and say he checked to induce a bluff (and bc he cant afford to be raised yea) What I don't understand is when Dwan bets MORE than he intended him to, why this changes ANYTHING when all his bet does is lessen his range tremendously (to nuts or air)

Like I said it goes back to previous history. Has Dwan overbet in this fashion before? Has he showed down? What has he showed down? Is this capable of being a sick bluff (hint yes) And to be fair is this capable of a super sick value bet (hint yes also). What does he think of me? Do I make big laydowns? Do I call too much? etc etc

But if u planned to c/c and his giant bet only shrinks his range, I have to imagine you cant back down now. If it's nuts/air I call more often than not