Definitely shouldn't have played today...
 

I took so many ridiculous beats today, I can't even believe it. All in $200+10 HU SNGs. I'm not going to post them all, because no one should have to read through them. But take my word for it - it was absolutely brutal. MULTIPLE 2 outers, 4 outers, 5 outers, 3 outers... multiple.

There morons were HORRIBLE players who couldn't give their money away fast enough... the problem is, the poker gods disagreed and rewarded them for their shitty play over and over again.

I know it's part of the game, but my God it's annoying when it's just one after another like this.

I went 6-13 on the day. Wheeee.... No joke, if the math worked out like it should have (meaning I still lose 1 in 5 times I'm a 4:1 favorite), I think I would have been at least 12-7, and probalby more like 14-5. Fucking ridiculous.

In case anyone has bothered reading this much (I'm just venting), here's one lovely Kiss of Death hand for you. This is one spectacularly donkalicious turn call right there, kids.


Full Tilt Tournament game, buy-in $200 + 10 Heads Up Sit & Go (43846575), $10/$20 No Limit, 2 players
Hand History by
HERO (BB): T$1340
Button: T$1660

Button postsHERO posts Big Blind T$20

Pre-flop: K:d: K:s: (T$20)
Button raises to T$60
HERO raises to T$180
Button calls T$120

Flop: 9:s: 5:s: 2:s: ($360)
HERO bets T$270
Button calls T$270

Turn: 9:s: 5:s: 2:s: 2:c: (T$900)
HERO bets T$620
Button calls T$620

River: 9:s: 5:s: 2:s: 2:c: 5:c: (T$2140)
HERO checks
Button bets T$590 and is all in
HERO calls T$270 and is all in

Button shows 5:d: 4:d:
Button wins T$2680 with a full house Fives full of Twos

Let me know next time you plan on running bad, I'll jump on and you can feel better about at giving it to a donk you know.

How long will this last?
 

How's your PokerEVSoftware graph looking for '08?

It seems you've been getting beat up for six months solid now, maybe longer. The good news is the Fed can't slash interest rate on Slansky bucks, so those must be accumulating nicely.

Individual match HU variance is a very, very sick thing. Remember, each of these beats equaly 2 buy ins (win $0 instead of $400). I've gotten a lot better at thinking about these in terms of the long(er) run though. They are supposed to happen some fraction of the time, so when they do, I'm trying to think, "Oh good - got that one out of the way."

Easier said than done.
__________________

Stick to your own words!!! You'll get em!!!!

Actually, I'm up nicely. Go figure. I don't run horrible all the time, but when I do - my God man.

I think PokerEV only works for cash games, and I've been playing almost exclusively HU SNGs for a while now...

Clearly.......

When you get sucked out on, you clicked the mouse a millisecond to early, or too late.

And when your hands hold, you clicked at the exact right millisecond


glorified slot machine........................FTL!!

How has your dip into HU SNGs been goin? Have you found them more profitable than 6 max (or HU) cash games or are you simply tryin to mix it up?

i dipped into HU starting march 1 and went 39-19 in $500 HU turbos. gonna get back into them soon prob. - seemed like some guys were solid and once they figured out i was good too they avoided sitting w me and i felt like u could get some horrible players in these - much worse than the ppl that would play just 1k hu cash with me.

If you have like a 8% ROI, you're only averaging $40 per match at $500 (and 8% is mighty generous if you are playing turbos). Seems like you are going to cap out at about $400/hour if you play $500 turbos.

I'm sure your hourly has to be higher at cash games.

I would think cash HU would allow you to manipulate certain variables (who, how much etc.) and increase your EV where you aren't able to in SnG's...

after 620 games i have a 22% ROI but thats at alot of lower games too. If that's at the $550 SNG thats $121 / hour and I bet the avg takes about 10 min? I wish I knew what the real average was. So either way not bad $ but ya seems like cash would be better I guess. It's a good change tho.

Somehow I missed all the posts in this thread since my last one... :confused:

Anyhoo... to answer Zy's question: When I had that huge bonus to clear in January (almost $1000) and was out of town for half the month, I found that HU SNGs were the easiest way to generate rake. Each $210 SNG is 70 points, and I'll guess I average 8 per hour (12 or so playing turbos), playing two at a time. The month went well for me, so I decided to do it again in February. I experimented with turbos and failed miserably (only played 150 of them, but didn't even win half) and I experimented with HU cash this month. HU cash tilts me like no other. Maybe I'm just not as good at it. I don't know what it is, but there is something I really like about the structured SNG style HU matches - they have a beginning, a middle, and an end, giving you time to figure out how to beat your opponent, blah blah blah. Oh, and no one can hit and run you. When it's over, it's over.

With Storm's hypothetical 8% ROI, which I think is very reasonable for non-turbos (JD's 22% is ridiculous), that's $17ish per $210 SNG or $135 per hour, two tabling.

I know some people in this thread sneeze at making $400 per hour, but I for one think making $135 an hour is pretty sweet, considering the short term "risk" (yes, I realize poker is a long term game, but it's a mental thinkg) which SEEMS to be much less than in cash games, but I could be way off base on that. I'm not really sure how $200 NL and $210 SNGs correlate, for example.

Oh, and that's not counting RB, which can be significant. I think I cleared $1300 last month in RB alone.

While making *7* figures per year from poker sounds great and all, I don't think I could ever (or would want to) play at that level. I'm not good enough, and not nearly dedicated enough. But I can handle pocketing $5k per month pretty "easily" (in theory). At $17 per match, play just 300 per month and you're at $5k. Play 30 per day 25 days per month (not me, but very doable for you guys who play a lot of hands), and you're looking at a $13k month.

And that's at the $200 level. Earn that same 8% ROI at $500s, and you're looking at over $30k months. I personally think that is unrealistic mostly because of the amount of action you are (not) going to get when you are dominating $500 HU SNGs, but certainly half of that should be reasonable.