Too late now, I think. Unless he's willing to take late action.

He started about 25 hours ago. Thanks, though.

How's he doing so far?

Good, but not good enough
 

He is posting frequently to the thread TP linked to earlier.



A recent post shows

+$338

331 Games Played

17% ROI

$1.02 Profit/Game

the back of his chair now says "TalkingPoker.com"


check it out, will post a pic in a bit.

What surprises me most about this is that he's only got 1 monitor! And it's not that big either... I would think if you plan to run a bunch of tables you'd need at least a couple of monitors...

Not necessarily... I stack 16 directly on top of eachother. Minimal mouse movement, I was surprised how much it helped my ability to multitable. There was a good thread about it on 2p2 about a month ago

True dat. Cascade ftw

Hiccup...

Him: Well, he has since deleted his post, but basically, his computer crashed and he had to go buy a new one and wanted to extend the bet one day.

People who hate money: All said sure, fine with them.

Me: Fine, I'll be "that guy."

So how are the responses coming in to that so far?

As I was typing it, he changed his mind and said today counts... and after that, every response has said they agree with me.

I'm sure that's all it took was your post. It makes perfect sense and I definitely agree with you completely.

Update thorugh 7 days:

841 played, $914 profit, 19% ROI. He should be at $1167 to be on pace and you know this is going to get harder and not easier as time passes.

I saw him playing last night on his webcam and he looked completely drained at the time I saw him. It was at like 3:30 AM.

Big hurdle hit this morning. He decided to try 40 tabling and dropped $100 in the session so now back down around $800 as of earlier this morning. He is going to try to finish this by just nine tabling and concentrating more.

I think it is looking pretty much like a locked in win at this point, but it is still possible. If he can play 100 games a day and average 30% ROI from here out it can be done.

I don't know if anyone else was following the WCG|Rider $10k Prop bet, but he bowed out a couple days ago when it looked like he wouldn't make it and took a $20k loss on the bets.

lol.....I don't know what the idea number is....but I'm sure 40 tabling is way above the optimal number of tables to be playing....especially for someone that has never amount before.

Also 9 is way below too.....pretty sure something around 18-24 (depends on frequency and length of session) tabling is the ideal volume.

My guess is that he is playing about 12-15 hours per day right now.

He is about to crack $1100 in profit through 9 days, but he should have $1500 at the point to be on pace.

I am not sure where the optimal number is as well. If it were me playing I would play up to the number that my ROI dropped to ~15% and at those levels over a significant sample I would hope that would be at least 18. I think I might even try to 24 table 3.40 9 man turbos

Doubtful
 

According to the thread:

End of Day 10 according to SS, 20 days left, 1/3 of the way done:

1245 games played

$1434 total profit

22% Avg ROI

$1.15 Avg Profit

Pace through 10 days would be a total profit of $1666.67

At this point he is $233 behind pace, ~ 14%

Remarkable achievement, but I don't think he's going to make it. You have to figure the next 20 days will be harder than the past 10, as he just gets sick to death of this.

Agreed. I still think it's impressive that he's even trying this and actually giving it a run.

I actually sent him some TP loot the other day. Hopefully the hat won't be too lucky for him!

He is only about 1 day behind pace at this point, and he has been crushing the 27 mans lately.

And remember, he had that 1 day where he barely played because he had to buy and set up a new pc. So he's basically on pace.

IMO though, he needs to be AHEAD of pace at this point. He's going to hit a downswing, or something unforseen will come up.

Through Day 15:

Games Played:1705
Profit: $2218
ROI: 24%

He is just a little bit behind schedule. Fortunately, he had a very breakeven day yesterday after a really good run the days before. He actually posted a "I will let you out now for 75% of the amount of your bet" thing, which everyone of course LOL'd at. I told him I wouldn't think about it for more than 10%. This is still certainly not a lock for him, but it's closer than I thought it would be.

I'm just glad he's not AHEAD of pace, and I am very impressed at the run he's making...

I too lazy to look through the rules but can anyone betting agaisnt him play him?

not knowingly

tl;dr

Another small profit so far today, but he will probably be playing for 2-3 more hours.

As of midnight he is about $400 behind pace.

This bet is over BTW

Details are being worked out. I will update when it is settled.

Wow, I'm guessing the poor kid snapped??

He says he has lost a lot of weight and is going insane playing 16 hours a day.

Last night he started shaking uncontrollably, and when he got up to play this morning he puked. He has just completely broken down.

He stopped playing at 6pm EST today.

That's sad. Poor kid. I blame TP.

I feel badly for him, I do, but I also think he needs to man up and pay his debt. He's trying to get out at a discount, playing up a pretty big sob story.

And remember, it was just a couple of days ago that he offered to let US out for 75% of OUR wager - meaning 50% MORE than the full amount he owes us for losing.... or freaking THREE TIMES what he's trying to get out for now.

People shouldn't make bets they can't afford to lose. And people who do shouldn't be taught the lesson that it's ok, people will feel sorry for you will be able to get out of it.

Agreed.

If the money is escrowed, and he gives up...I really don't see how this is even an issue. If people want to give him back a cut, that's their choice.

If he states that he officially calls this bet off (from the sounds of it he should), then people should be getting paid.

- Also the way he went about trying to do this was far from ideal. Going from low volume to high volume + 16 hour days over a strecth of time is a recipe for disaster.

Windbreaker raises a good point - wouldn't you think he'd have conditioned himself for this first? Maybe run a two or three week test to see what the results were? (Exhaustion wise, not money wise) I really don't see this attempt that different from running a marathon - if you're not conditioned for it, you're going to fail spectacularly.

Let's just hope that no one with a bad temper and violent streak had money on him if he weasles out of paying in any way.

I don't really understand what there is to work out or settle. Weren't all the details of the bet organized ahead of time? He lost - pay up - end of story.

Agree 100%
 

WTF? This bet was about endurance, not performance. I'd be happy to make a large wager that I can run one 8 minute mile. I just can't run 26 8-minute miles in a row.

I thought all the money was escrowed? Why is there any question at all if it shouldn't be paid in full as soon as it is officially due?

The toll it took on him is unfortunate, but not surprising. In fact, it is WHY he was able to get action. Because this is exactly what everyone who bet against him thought would happen.

And while I understand the position that if you are not in the bet (which I am not) than it is none of your business, it seems odd that he is posting in other reads without addressing the situation more publicly.

Actually, he hasn't posted yet, since calling it off via PM. He's said nothing publicly about it or anything else.

Basically, he admitted defeat, but sort of pleaded to be let off the hook at a discount. There are private discussions going on. People feel badly for him, but I have yet to see a single person say he should be let off. Some are talking about letting him work out a payment plan, but I don't get it. The money has been confirmed as escrowed... well, he escrowed some and his PTP staker investments will cover the rest, but I suppose it could be a while before those pan out and pay off.

IMO, he needs to pay in full now, and if some investors feel badly for him and want to lend him money or whatever, great... but that's an individual decision that should be made after the fact.

Somewhat realted... in the original thread about this, some tool was insisting that winning $2500 in 15 days is exactly the same as $5000 in 30 days (or any other $/day ration you want to make up). People tried and tried to explain to him how this bet was about endurance, not a short term ROI... and I think it's pretty obvious now, and fitting, considering how well he was doing (just barely behind) at the 2 week mark, only to have a total 2 days later.

I find it fascinating that poker players (i.e. gamblers) refuse to understand how 'betting' works.

I also thought that this kid was suppose to have ALL of his money escrowed for this bet, not part of it. I thought i saw that somewhere buried in this thread, but maybe that changed.

Im sorry but sitting in front of a computer for 16 hrs a day for 30 days playing .25 cent NLHE would make ME sick to my stomach... Just the thought of trying to do this myself makes me want to throw up. I just cant sit in front of a computer and play poker like that, I have to have a life outside of playing poker.

He formally conceded the bet today.

All escrowed funds have been sent back to the bettors and since the funds that he escrowed matched the amounts that were escrowed against him and the extra that he escrowed (about half of the remainder that is owed) will be distributed tomorrow.

The remainder that he owes will be paid off by the date the bet was actually supposed to end. I think this is fair.

After taking into account all the money he made from playing, BOP, FPPs, and other endeavors whilst playing he figures that even after paying off the bets he only actually lost about $800.

$800 for a valuable life lesson? I call that a bargain. :p